Op-Ed

Authoritarian Nostalgia Among Iraqi Youth

July 25, 2018 Marsin Alshamary War on the Rocks

Scholars and policymakers should be concerned with how Iraq’s leadership vacuum and the accompanying authoritarian nostalgia will manifest itself in the future, particularly as Iraq’s youth reach the age of voting and political activism.

Japan’s pivot in Asia

July 22, 2018 Richard J. Samuels and Corey Wallace Oxford University Press Blog

Tokyo is wary of Trump’s treatment of traditional American allies in Europe and Asia, and it is apprehensive about what compromises Trump might make in search of a ‘deal’ with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK.) Trump’s foreign policy behaviour makes strategic autonomy for some in Japan even more attractive.

A New Military Strategy for Japan

July 16, 2018 Eric Heginbotham and Richard Samuels Foreign Affairs

Japan confronts an increasingly difficult security environment. Despite the current media attention on North Korea, a very real but largely one-dimensional nuclear threat, Japanese strategists are concerned primarily with the broader and more multidimensional challenge posed by the rise of China and its territorial ambitions in the East China Sea.

What the G7 Fiasco Means for Japan

June 12, 2018 Mina Pollmann The Diplomat

Japan’s goals — maintaining the U.S.-Japan alliance and upholding the liberal international order — have never been more at odds.

Japan and the Shangri-La Dialogue

June 6, 2018 Mina Pollmann The Diplomat

At this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Japan could rest assured that – with the twin foci on reintroducing the “Indo-Pacific” concept and spotlighting Chinese rule-breaking behavior (as Ankit covers excellently here) – many of its concerns are shared by the rest of the region and the world. Maritime issues were front and center in many of Japan’s sideline meetings, including the trilateral meeting with the United States and Australia on Saturday and with the U.S. and South Korea on Sunday.

Between Two Caesars: The Christians of Northern Iraq

May 11, 2018 Roger Petersen and Matthew Cancian Providence

Religious and ethnic minorities live a precarious existence during civil wars. In a war between the incumbent state and an insurgent challenger, minority group leaders may pick one side over the other. However, if they choose the loser they will be open to charges of collaboration and become vulnerable targets of vengeance.

The Rise of Illiberal Hegemony

March 1, 2018 Barry R. Posen Foreign Affairs

Grand strategy is a slippery concept, and for those attempting to divine the Trump administration’s, its National Security Strategy—a word salad of a document—yields little insight. The better way to understand Trump’s approach to the world is to look at a year’s worth of actual policies.

With friends like these: Japan-ROK Cooperation and US Policy

March 1, 2018 Eric Heginbotham & Richard Samuels The ASAN Forum

Heginbotham and Samuels 1) briefly assess the record of security cooperation since North Korea’s 2006 nuclear test and how the discontinuation of the Six-Party Talks in 2009 highlighted the growing gravity of the threat, 2) examine several areas of underperformance, and 3) close by recommending measures that may, at the margins, improve the prospects for meaningful cooperation.

South Africa's Healthy Democracy: Why Zuma's Resignation Is a Good Sign

February 20, 2018 Daniel de Kadt, Evan Lieberman, and Philip Martin Foreign Affairs

Democracy in South Africa is in tatters. Or at least that’s the widespread view following President Jacob Zuma’s forced resignation on February 14, which ended his almost-nine-year tenure in office.

The Price of War With North Korea

December 6, 2017 Barry R. Posen The New York Times

During his first official trip to Asia last month, President Trump issued a stern warning to North Korea: “Do not underestimate us. And do not try us.” But for his part, Mr. Trump should not underestimate the steep human cost of initiating a war against Pyongyang.

Why Zimbabwe's Military Abondoned Mugabe

November 17, 2017 Philip Martin Foreign Affairs

In 2016, when Zimbabwe was rocked by a summer of protests and a social movement gone viral, I argued in Foreign Affairs that the Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) was unlikely to break ranks with President Robert Mugabe and his ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF).

What Political Science Tells Us About the Risk of Civil War in Spain

October 25, 2017 Sara Plana War on the Rocks

Observers should not fall into the mistake of underestimating the prospects of civil war — as many were wont to do before the last major civil war on the European continent, over twenty years ago in the former Yugoslavia. In fact, political science research suggests there are more reasons to be pessimistic than optimistic. The political and economic dynamics of the standoff between Spain and Catalonia portend the worst-case scenario of civil war.

Deadly Overconfidence: Trump Thinks Missile Defenses Work Against North Korea, and That Should Scare You

October 16, 2017 Vipin Narang and Ankit Panda War on the Rocks

Could a president’s overconfidence in U.S. defensive systems lead to deadly miscalculation and nuclear armageddon? Yes. Yes, it could. Last Wednesday, referring to potential American responses to North Korea’s missile and nuclear program, President Donald Trump told Sean Hannity “We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them it’s gonna get knocked out.” If Trump believes — or is being told — that American missile defenses are that accurate, not only is he factually wrong, he is also very dangerously wrong. This misperception could be enough to lead the United States into a costly war with devastating consequences.

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