M. Taylor Fravel
Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science
Director of the MIT Security Studies Program
International relations; international security; military strategy; nuclear strategy; territorial disputes; maritime disputes; China; East Asia
Biography
M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Taylor studies international relations, with a focus on international security, China, and East Asia. His books include Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes, (Princeton University Press, 2008) and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949 (Princeton University Press, 2019). His other publications have appeared in International Security, Foreign Affairs, Security Studies, International Studies Review, The China Quarterly, The Washington Quarterly, Journal of Strategic Studies, Armed Forces & Society, Current History, Asian Survey, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, and Contemporary Southeast Asia.
Taylor is a graduate of Middlebury College and Stanford University, where he received his PhD. He also has graduate degrees from the London School of Economics and Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. In 2016, he was named an Andrew Carnegie Fellow by the Carnegie Corporation. Taylor is a member of the board of directors of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and serves as the Principal Investigator for the Maritime Awareness Project.
Recent Publications
"Estimating China’s Defense Spending: How To Get It Wrong (and Right)," Texas National Security Review, Vol. 7, No. 3 (Summer 2024) (With George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham)
"China’s Global Security Initiative at Two: A Journey, Not a Destination," China Leadership Model No. 80 (Summer 2024)
"China's Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan," The Washington Quarterly Vol. 46, No. 3 (2023)
"Two Paths: Why States Join or Avoid China's Belt and Road Initiative," Global Studies Quarterly Vol. 3, No. 3 (July 2023) (With Eleanor Atkins, Raymond Wang, Nick Ackert, and Sihao Huang)
“Managing United States-China university relations and risks,” Science Vol. 380, No. 6642 (April 2023) (With Richard Lester, Lily Tsai, Suzanne Berger, Peter Fisher, David Goldston, Yasheng Huang, and Daniela Rus)
“The dynamics of an entangled security dilemma: China’s changing nuclear posture,” International Security Vol. 47, No. 4 (Spring 2023) (With Henrik Stålhane Hiim and Magnus Langset Trøan)
"How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea," International Security Vol. 47, No. 2 (Fall 2022) (with Charles L. Glaser)
"China’s Military Strategy for a ‘New Era’: Some Change, More Continuity, and Tantalizing Hints," Journal of Strategic Studies (March 2022) (with Joel Wuthnow)
“China engages the Arctic: a great power in a regime complex,” Asian Security Vol. 18, No 2 (2022) (with Kathryn Lavelle and Liselotte Odgaard)
“Stormy Seas: The South China Sea in US-China Relations,” in Avery Goldstein and Jacques de Lisle, eds., After Engagement: Dilemmas in U.S.-China Security Relations (Washington D.C.: Brookings, 2021) (with Kacie Miura)
“A “China in the World” Paradigm for Scholarship,” Studies in Comparative International Development Vol. 55, No. 1 (March 2021) (with Melanie Manion and Yuhua Wang)
Task Force on US-China Policy, China's New Direction: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy, Asia Society Center on US-China Relations, June 2021
"China's 'World-Class Military Ambitions: Origins and Implications," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 1 (Spring 2020)
"Stability in a secondary strategic direction: China and the border dispute with India after 1962," in Kanti Bajpai, Selina Ho, and Manjari Chaterjee Miller, eds. Routledge Handbook of China-India Relations, (New York: Routledge, 2020)
"Dangerous Confidence? Chinese Views on Nuclear Escalation," International Security, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Fall 2019) (with Fiona S. Cunningham)
"Hearing on 'A World Class' Military: Assessing China's Global Military Ambitions," Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, June 20, 2019.
“Shifts in Warfare and Party Unity: Explaining Changes in China’s Military Strategy,” International Security Vol 42, No. 3 (Winter 2017/2018)
“Threading the Needle: The South China Sea Disputes and U.S.-China Relations,” in Robert Ross and Øystein Tsunjo, eds., Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2017)
“Qualitative Investigations of Theoretical Models: The Value of Process Tracing,” Journal of Theoretical Politics Vol. 29, No. 3 (2017) (with Peter Lorentzen and Jack Paine)
“Explaining China’s Escalation in the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands Dispute,” Global Summitry Vol. 2, No. 1 (June 2016)
“Assuring Assured Retaliation: China’s Nuclear Strategy and U.S.-China Strategic Stability,” International Security Vol. 40, No. 2 (Fall 2015) (with Fiona S. Cunningham)
“The PLA and National Security Decisionmaking: Insights from China’s Territorial and Maritime Disputes,” in Phillip Saunders and Andrew Scobell, eds., The PLA’s Role in National Security Policy-Making (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2015)
“Projecting Strategy: The Myth of Chinese Counter-Intervention,” The Washington Quarterly Vol. 37, No. 4 (Winter 2015) (with Christopher P. Twomey)
“Things Fall Apart: Maritime Disputes and China’s Regional Diplomacy,” in Jacques deLisle and Avery Goldstein, eds., China’s Challenges: The Road Ahead (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2015)
“Territorial and Maritime Boundary Disputes in Asia,” in Saadia Pekkanen, Rosemary Foot, and John Ravenhill, Oxford Handbook of the International Relations of Asia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014)
Teaching
| 17.950 | Territorial Conflict |
| 17.407/17.408 | Chinese Foreign Policy: International Relations and Strategy (Syllabus) |
| 17.433/17.434 | International Relations of East Asia |
| 17.418 | Field Seminar in International Relations (Syllabus) |
| 17.THT | Thesis Research Design Seminar |
News
Biography
M. Taylor Fravel is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Taylor studies international relations, with a focus on international security, China, and East Asia. His books include Strong Borders, Secure Nation: Cooperation and Conflict in China’s Territorial Disputes, (Princeton University Press, 2008) and Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949 (Princeton University Press, 2019). His other publications have appeared in International Security, Foreign Affairs, Security Studies, International Studies Review, The China Quarterly, The Washington Quarterly, Journal of Strategic Studies, Armed Forces & Society, Current History, Asian Survey, Asian Security, China Leadership Monitor, and Contemporary Southeast Asia.
Taylor is a graduate of Middlebury College and Stanford University, where he received his PhD. He also has graduate degrees from the London School of Economics and Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. In 2016, he was named an Andrew Carnegie Fellow by the Carnegie Corporation. Taylor is a member of the board of directors of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and serves as the Principal Investigator for the Maritime Awareness Project.
Recent Publications
"Estimating China’s Defense Spending: How To Get It Wrong (and Right)," Texas National Security Review, Vol. 7, No. 3 (Summer 2024) (With George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham)
"China’s Global Security Initiative at Two: A Journey, Not a Destination," China Leadership Model No. 80 (Summer 2024)
"China's Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan," The Washington Quarterly Vol. 46, No. 3 (2023)
"Two Paths: Why States Join or Avoid China's Belt and Road Initiative," Global Studies Quarterly Vol. 3, No. 3 (July 2023) (With Eleanor Atkins, Raymond Wang, Nick Ackert, and Sihao Huang)
“Managing United States-China university relations and risks,” Science Vol. 380, No. 6642 (April 2023) (With Richard Lester, Lily Tsai, Suzanne Berger, Peter Fisher, David Goldston, Yasheng Huang, and Daniela Rus)
“The dynamics of an entangled security dilemma: China’s changing nuclear posture,” International Security Vol. 47, No. 4 (Spring 2023) (With Henrik Stålhane Hiim and Magnus Langset Trøan)
"How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea," International Security Vol. 47, No. 2 (Fall 2022) (with Charles L. Glaser)
"China’s Military Strategy for a ‘New Era’: Some Change, More Continuity, and Tantalizing Hints," Journal of Strategic Studies (March 2022) (with Joel Wuthnow)
“China engages the Arctic: a great power in a regime complex,” Asian Security Vol. 18, No 2 (2022) (with Kathryn Lavelle and Liselotte Odgaard)
“Stormy Seas: The South China Sea in US-China Relations,” in Avery Goldstein and Jacques de Lisle, eds., After Engagement: Dilemmas in U.S.-China Security Relations (Washington D.C.: Brookings, 2021) (with Kacie Miura)
“A “China in the World” Paradigm for Scholarship,” Studies in Comparative International Development Vol. 55, No. 1 (March 2021) (with Melanie Manion and Yuhua Wang)
Task Force on US-China Policy, China's New Direction: Challenges and Opportunities for U.S. Policy, Asia Society Center on US-China Relations, June 2021
"China's 'World-Class Military Ambitions: Origins and Implications," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 43, No. 1 (Spring 2020)
"Stability in a secondary strategic direction: China and the border dispute with India after 1962," in Kanti Bajpai, Selina Ho, and Manjari Chaterjee Miller, eds. Routledge Handbook of China-India Relations, (New York: Routledge, 2020)
"Dangerous Confidence? Chinese Views on Nuclear Escalation," International Security, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Fall 2019) (with Fiona S. Cunningham)
"Hearing on 'A World Class' Military: Assessing China's Global Military Ambitions," Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, June 20, 2019.
“Shifts in Warfare and Party Unity: Explaining Changes in China’s Military Strategy,” International Security Vol 42, No. 3 (Winter 2017/2018)
“Threading the Needle: The South China Sea Disputes and U.S.-China Relations,” in Robert Ross and Øystein Tsunjo, eds., Strategic Adjustment and the Rise of China: Power and Politics in East Asia (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2017)
“Qualitative Investigations of Theoretical Models: The Value of Process Tracing,” Journal of Theoretical Politics Vol. 29, No. 3 (2017) (with Peter Lorentzen and Jack Paine)
“Explaining China’s Escalation in the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands Dispute,” Global Summitry Vol. 2, No. 1 (June 2016)
“Assuring Assured Retaliation: China’s Nuclear Strategy and U.S.-China Strategic Stability,” International Security Vol. 40, No. 2 (Fall 2015) (with Fiona S. Cunningham)
“The PLA and National Security Decisionmaking: Insights from China’s Territorial and Maritime Disputes,” in Phillip Saunders and Andrew Scobell, eds., The PLA’s Role in National Security Policy-Making (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2015)
“Projecting Strategy: The Myth of Chinese Counter-Intervention,” The Washington Quarterly Vol. 37, No. 4 (Winter 2015) (with Christopher P. Twomey)
“Things Fall Apart: Maritime Disputes and China’s Regional Diplomacy,” in Jacques deLisle and Avery Goldstein, eds., China’s Challenges: The Road Ahead (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2015)
“Territorial and Maritime Boundary Disputes in Asia,” in Saadia Pekkanen, Rosemary Foot, and John Ravenhill, Oxford Handbook of the International Relations of Asia (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014)
Teaching
| 17.950 | Territorial Conflict |
| 17.407/17.408 | Chinese Foreign Policy: International Relations and Strategy (Syllabus) |
| 17.433/17.434 | International Relations of East Asia |
| 17.418 | Field Seminar in International Relations (Syllabus) |
| 17.THT | Thesis Research Design Seminar |